1C-market closed the week at $2.87/lb, recovering 3.6% from Tuesday's low but still down 5.78% week-over-week
290-day downtrend continues with prices off 10.92% from March highs, signaling sustained pressure on green coffee costs
3Volatile trading pattern suggests market uncertainty ahead of Q3, with implications for roasters' procurement strategies
Market Overview
The C-market finished a turbulent week at $2.87/lb on Friday, June 28—a notable rebound from mid-week lows that underscores the continued volatility gripping global coffee futures.
Weekly Close
$2.87/lb
-5.78%
Despite the week's closing strength, the overall trajectory remains decidedly downward. The opening price of $2.75/lb on Monday gave way to a sharp sell-off on Tuesday ($2.56/lb), the week's low point, before a three-day recovery carried prices back into the $2.74–$2.87 range. This intraweek volatility—spanning $0.31/lb—reflects ongoing market uncertainty about supply dynamics, demand signals, and macroeconomic headwinds.
Arabica C-MarketKC=F
Loading...
Source: ICE Futures via Yahoo Finance. Delayed data.
When placed against the broader 90-day context, this week's weakness is part of a larger pattern. Prices have declined 10.92% since late March, when C-market futures traded near $2.93/lb. The 30-day trend tells a similar story: down 4.74% from $2.74/lb to the current level.
The one-year view reveals even starker contrasts. At this time last year, the C-market was trading around $2.93/lb, but earlier in 2026 prices had reached $4.13/lb—meaning current levels represent an 10.92% decline from December's starting point and a 30.5% pullback from the year's peak. The average price over the past 12 months has been $3.32/lb, well above where we stand today.
☕
For European roasters accustomed to the higher price environment of early 2026, the current $2.87/lb level may feel like relief—but the trajectory matters as much as the absolute price. Sustained downward momentum can signal either genuine oversupply or demand concerns that warrant caution in forward contracting.
What This Means for Specialty Roasters
The week's price action presents a mixed picture for specialty coffee professionals. On one hand, lower futures prices create an opportunity window for roasters managing margin pressure. On the other hand, Friday's sharp recovery suggests the market floor may be shallower than the $2.56 Tuesday low implied—indicating buyers are still finding value, and further downside may be limited.
The volatile trading pattern—swinging $0.31/lb in five sessions—complicates forward-purchasing decisions. Roasters considering larger green coffee commitments face genuine uncertainty about whether current levels represent fair value or a temporary bounce before renewed selling pressure.
Looking Ahead
Several factors will shape the market's direction into Q3. The ongoing softness in 2025/26 harvest estimates from key origins, recovery efforts in producing countries like Liberia (per recent industry reports), and broader economic conditions affecting demand will all play roles. Additionally, the coffee industry's consolidation—highlighted by recent leadership transitions at major players following acquisitions—may eventually influence procurement patterns and market sentiment.
⚠️
Don't mistake this week's rebound for a trend reversal. The 90-day downtrend and year-long pressure remain the dominant narrative. Use any price strength strategically rather than as a signal to overcommit green inventory.
For supply chain professionals, the message is clear: maintain disciplined purchasing strategies, monitor weekly closes carefully for signs of either sustained recovery or breakdown below $2.75/lb, and prepare contingency plans for both scenarios.
Sources
ICE Futures U.S. C-market closing prices · Perfect Daily Grind industry reporting · Annona Coffee market analysis
